Experts: Kids are resilient in coping with trauma


WASHINGTON (AP) — They might not want to talk about the gunshots or the screams. But their toys might start getting into imaginary shootouts.


Last week's school shooting in Connecticut raises the question: What will be the psychological fallout for the children who survived?


For people of any age, regaining a sense of security after surviving violence can take a long time. They're at risk for lingering anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder.


But after the grief and fear fades, psychiatrists say most of Newtown's young survivors probably will cope without long-term emotional problems.


"Kids do tend to be highly resilient," said Dr. Matthew Biel, chief of child and adolescent psychiatry at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital.


And one way that younger children try to make sense of trauma is through play. Youngsters may pull out action figures or stuffed animals and re-enact what they witnessed, perhaps multiple times.


"That's the way they gain mastery over a situation that's overwhelming," Biel explained, saying it becomes a concern only if the child is clearly distressed while playing.


Nor is it unusual for children to chase each other playing cops-and-robbers, but now parents might see some also pretending they're dead, added Dr. Melissa Brymer of the UCLA-Duke National Center for Child Traumatic Stress.


Among the challenges will be spotting which children are struggling enough that they may need professional help.


Newtown's tragedy is particularly heart-wrenching because of what such young children grappled with — like the six first-graders who apparently had to run past their teacher's body to escape to safety.


There's little scientific research specifically on PTSD, post-traumatic stress disorder, in children exposed to a burst of violence, and even less to tell if a younger child will have a harder time healing than an older one.


Overall, scientists say studies of natural disasters and wars suggest most children eventually recover from traumatic experiences while a smaller proportion develop long-term disorders such as PTSD. Brymer says in her studies of school shootings, that fraction can range from 10 percent to a quarter of survivors, depending on what they actually experienced. A broader 2007 study found 13 percent of U.S. children exposed to different types of trauma reported some symptoms of PTSD, although less than 1 percent had enough for an official diagnosis.


Violence isn't all that rare in childhood. In many parts of the world — and in inner-city neighborhoods in the U.S., too — children witness it repeatedly. They don't become inured to it, Biel said, and more exposure means a greater chance of lasting psychological harm.


In Newtown, most at risk for longer-term problems are those who saw someone killed, said Dr. Carol North of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, who has researched survivors of mass shootings.


Friday's shootings were mostly in two classrooms of Sandy Hook Elementary School, which has about 450 students through fourth-grade.


But those who weren't as close to the danger may be at extra risk, too, if this wasn't their first trauma or they already had problems such as anxiety disorders that increase their vulnerability, she said.


Right after a traumatic event, it's normal to have nightmares or trouble sleeping, to stick close to loved ones, and to be nervous or moody, Biel said.


To help, parents will have to follow their child's lead. Grilling a child about a traumatic experience isn't good, he stressed. Some children will ask a lot of questions, seeking reassurance, he said. Others will be quiet, thinking about the experience and maybe drawing or writing about it, or acting it out at playtime. Younger children may regress, becoming clingy or having tantrums.


Before second grade, their brains also are at a developmental stage some refer to as magical thinking, when it's difficult to distinguish reality and fantasy. Parents may have to help them understand that a friend who died isn't in pain or lonely but also isn't coming back, Brymer said.


When problem behaviors or signs of distress continue for several weeks, Brymer says it's time for an evaluation by a counselor or pediatrician.


Besides a supportive family, what helps? North advises getting children back into routines, together with their friends, and easing them back into a school setting. Studies of survivors of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks found "the power of the support of the people who went through it with you is huge," she said.


Children as young as first-graders can benefit from cognitive-behavioral therapy, Georgetown's Biel said. They can calm themselves with breathing techniques. They also can learn to identify and label their feelings — anger, frustration, worry — and how to balance, say, a worried thought with a brave one.


Finally, avoid watching TV coverage of the shooting, as children may think it's happening all over again, Biel added. He found that children who watched the 9/11 clips of planes hitting the World Trade Center thought they were seeing dozens of separate attacks.


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EDITOR'S NOTE — Lauran Neergaard covers health and medical issues for The Associated Press in Washington.


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Guns in Circulation Is Biggest Obstacle, Expert Says













Editor's Note: This post is part of a larger series by ABC News examining the complex legal, political and social issues in the gun control debate. The series is part of ABC's special coverage of the search for solutions in the wake of the tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut.


The Second Amendment of the Constitution reads: "A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed."


Despite that seemingly clear statement that Americans have the right to buy and own guns, legal experts say it does not preclude the government from enacting measures to regulate the manufacturing and distributing of firearms.


"The biggest misconception is the idea that the Second Amendment imposes serious hurdles to gun control," says Adam Winkler, law professor at UCLA and author of "Gun Fight: The Battle Over the Right to Bear Arms in America."


"The Supreme Court has made it crystal clear that there is plenty of room for effective gun control laws," he said. "The right of people to have guns and gun control are not mutually exclusive."


Legislation introduced which proports to control gun violence has historically focused on regulating high-capacity ammunition clips and certain types of semi-automatic firearms. Polling shows that these types of regulations are generally popular, and therefore proposals to ban the sale of these types of weapons and weapon accessories makes political sense.






Charles Dharapak/AP Photo











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But legislation to control sales of weapons don't address the biggest hurdle to effective gun control -- the guns that are already in circulation.


"The biggest problem for gun control today is a number: 300 million," Winkler said. "That's roughly the number of guns there are in civilian hands today. Any new law you pass confronts the reality of 300 million guns already in circulation."


Federal and state government hands are tied when it comes to regulating these already circulated firearms, he said.


"You can outlaw assault rifles for instance, say that anyone who has one, it's illegal, you have to turn it in," Winkler said. "You could do that, but they won't be turned in. It's not that you can't outlaw them, it's just that practically speaking you can't get rid of them."


Additionally, the politically popular avenue of banning the manufacturing and sale of certain types of semi-automatic weapons is inherently flawed.


For a gun to be classified as a semi-automatic, it must be designed to automatically reload a bullet after the shooter pulls the trigger. Virtually every civilian-owned gun is a type of semi-automatic gun, which means banning all semi-automatic guns would likely be read by the courts as a violation of the Second Amendment, and therefore any ban on these weapons would be limited in scope.


Automatic firearms -- those in which a shooter pulls the trigger once and the gun fires multiple rounds of bullets -- are tightly regulated and have been since the 1930s.


While regulation of certain types of semi-automatics, such as assault weapons, has broad public support, broader legislative actions are not. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted in the aftermath of the mass shooting in Newtown, Conn., found that 71 percent of Americans oppose banning the sale of handguns to everyone except law enforcement officials.


"The court's reading of the Second Amendment is completely in sync with the American public's views on firearms," said Randy Barnett, professor of constitutional law at Georgetown University. "That is, you're allowed to have firearms, you're allowed to have them in the home for self-defense. ... Americans are willing to consider reasonable regulations of that, and courts are also willing to consider that."






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Syrian rebels take control of Damascus Palestinian camp


BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian rebels took full control of the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp on Monday after fighting raged for days in the district on the southern edge of President Bashar al-Assad's Damascus powerbase, rebel and Palestinian sources said.


The battle had pitted rebels, backed by some Palestinians, against Palestinian fighters of the pro-Assad Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC). Many PFLP-GC fighters defected to the rebel side and their leader Ahmed Jibril left the camp two days ago, rebel sources said.


"All of the camp is under the control of the (rebel) Free Syrian Army," said a Palestinian activist in Yarmouk. He said clashes had stopped and the remaining PFLP fighters retreated to join Assad's forces massed on the northern edge of the camp.


The battle in Yarmouk is one of a series of conflicts on the southern fringes of Assad's capital, as rebels try to choke the power of the 47-year-old leader after a 21-month-old uprising in which 40,000 people have been killed.


Government forces have used jets and artillery to try to dislodge the fighters but the violence has crept into the heart of the city and activists say rebels overran three army stations in a new offensive in the central province of Hama on Monday.


On the border with Lebanon, hundreds of Palestinian families fled across the frontier following the weekend violence in Yarmouk, a Reuters witness said.


Syria hosts half a million Palestinian refugees, most living in Yarmouk, descendants of those admitted after the creation of Israel in 1948, and has always cast itself as a champion of the Palestinian struggle, sponsoring several guerrilla factions.


Both Assad's government and the mainly Sunni Muslim Syrian rebels have enlisted and armed divided Palestinian factions as the uprising has developed into a civil war.


"NEITHER SIDE CAN WIN"


Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa said in a newspaper interview published on Monday that neither Assad's forces nor rebels seeking to overthrow him can win the war.


Sharaa, a Sunni Muslim in a power structure dominated by Assad's Alawite minority, has rarely been seen since the revolt erupted in March 2011 and is not part of the president's inner circle directing the fight against Sunni rebels. But he is the most prominent figure to say in public that Assad will not win.


Sharaa said the situation in Syria was deteriorating and a "historic settlement" was needed to end the conflict, involving regional powers and the U.N. Security Council and the formation of a national unity government "with broad powers".


"With every passing day the political and military solutions are becoming more distant. We should be in a position defending the existence of Syria. We are not in a battle for an individual or a regime," Sharaa was quoted as telling Al-Akhbar newspaper.


"The opposition cannot decisively settle the battle and what the security forces and army units are doing will not achieve a decisive settlement," he said, adding that insurgents fighting to topple Syria's leadership could plunge it into "anarchy and an unending spiral of violence".


Sources close to the Syrian government say Sharaa had pushed for dialogue with the opposition and objected to the military response to an uprising that began peacefully.


In a veiled criticism of the crackdown, he said there was a difference between the state's duty to provide security to its citizens, and "pursuing a security solution to the crisis".


He said even Assad could not be certain where events in Syria were leading, but that anyone who met him would hear that "this is a long struggle...and he does not hide his desire to settle matters militarily to reach a final solution."


In Hama province, rebels and the army clashed in a new campaign launched on Sunday by rebels to block off the country's north, activists said.


The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition-linked violence monitor, said fighting raged through the provincial towns of Karnaz, Kafar Weeta, Halfayeh and Mahardeh.


It said there were no clashes reported in Hama city, which lies on the main north-south highway connecting the capital with Aleppo, Syria's second city.


Qassem Saadeddine, a member of the newly established rebel military command, said on Sunday fighters had been ordered to surround and attack army positions across the province. He said Assad's forces were given 48 hours to surrender or be killed.


In 1982 Hafez al-Assad, father of the current ruler, crushed an uprising in Hama city, killing up to 30,000 civilians.


Qatiba al-Naasan, a rebel from Hama, said the offensive would bring retaliatory air strikes from the government but that the situation is "already getting miserable".


(Additional reporting by Oliver Holmes, Erika Solomon and Dominic Evans in Beirut, Afif Diab at Masnaa, Lebanon; editing by Philippa Fletcher)



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ASEAN-India commemorative summit to chart future ties






SINGAPORE: The achievements in 20 years of ties between ASEAN and dialogue partner India will be celebrated with a commemorative summit in New Delhi on Thursday.

ASEAN leaders and their Indian host, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, are expected to adopt the "ASEAN-India Vision Statement" charting the future direction of their ties at the summit.

India started its Look East policy in 1992 under the late Prime Minister Narasimha Rao. At that time, Dr Manmohan Singh was the finance minister in the Indian Cabinet.

Since then there has been no turning back on India's ties with ASEAN.

India joined the ASEAN Regional Forum in 1996 and the East Asia Summit in 2005.

At the commemorative summit, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is expected to reiterate the Republic's support for India's continued engagement of the region, its participation in the ASEAN-led forums and India's contributions to the ASEAN Community-building efforts.

Mr Gopinath Pillai, chairman of the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, describes the role India can play in the region.

Mr Pillai said: "From Singapore's point of view, the involvement of all the major countries is vital and India is a major player. So we would like to see India being very involved so that all the powers have a stake here and the region will prosper.

"India's business interests will grow. As it is, Southeast Asia has become a focus area for Indian businessmen -- either to directly invest in Southeast Asia or use Southeast Asia to go into other countries. It will take time but it is happening."

But there are some who still feel that India's ties with ASEAN are moving too slowly, said Mr Pillai.

Mr Pillai added: "But one has to take into account the composition of the two sides. On the ASEAN side, we have ten members and we have to reach consensus before we can move forward. On the Indian side, they have their own pre-occupations in the region, domestically, so that also delays the process."

However, growth in one area between the two sides has been significant, said observers, and that is in the area of two-way trade.

ASEAN-India total trade reached US$75 billion last year, 43 percent more than what was achieved in 2010.

And one project which economists said needs more push is the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement.

Negotiations on the Services and Investment Agreements are still going on, said the former chief mentor of the Confederation of Indian Industries, Tarun Das.

Mr Tarun Das said: "When we are negotiating between ten countries on one side and one country on the other side, there are 11 countries involved, and each country is different -- each country has its own strengths, weaknesses and its own concerns.

"What you are seeing is an engagement to try and address all concerns, work out compromised solutions, find the right language to be with each one's agendas and issues.'

The leaders of ASEAN and India have set a new target of achieving US$100 billion in trade between both sides by 2015.

- CNA/lp



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MPs seek death penalty for Delhi gang rape accused

NEW DELHI: The bus driver, who along with six others allegedly gang-raped a 23-year-old girl on Sunday evening, was today remanded to five days in police custody by a Delhi court.

Ram Singh, who was the first person to be arrested last night, was produced before Metropolitan Magistrate Namrita Aggarwal who allowed the plea of Delhi Police for his custodial interrogation for facilitating the arrest of three other accused who are absconding.

The accused refused to undergo Test Identification Parade (TIP), the criminal procedure in which the alleged offender is brought before witnesses and victims for identification.

Out of the seven accused, four have already been arrested.

The Delhi Police told the magistrate that the other three arrested culprits, Ram Singh's brother Mukesh, Vinay Sharma, an assistant gym instructor and Pawan Gupta, a fruit seller, will be produced in court tomorrow.

While seeking the remand of the driver, the police said his custodial interrogation was needed to recover the clothes of accused, mobile phones and ATM cards of the victim and her male friend.

Further, "we need his remand as three more accused are to be arrested who hail from Rajasthan, UP and Bihar and we have to take Ram Singh to these places," police said.

Allowing the plea, the court said, "Since the accused is required for apprehending other co-accused and also for the identification of clothes and recovery of the ATM card and mobile phones of the complainant.

"Accused Ram Singh is remanded to five days of police custody. Accused be produced on December 23."

The girl, a paramedical student, was raped and brutally assaulted before being thrown out of the moving vehicle with her male friend.

Parliament shocked

Parliament on Tuesday expressed shock and outrage over the barbaric gangrape of a girl inside a moving bus in south Delhi with strong demands being made for capital punishment to perpetrators of such heinous crimes.

The Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha saw members of all parties speaking in unison and raising serious concern over repeated incidents of rape in the national capital, whose law and order comes directly under the Union Home Ministry.

Opposition members demanded a categorical assurance from home minister Sushilkumar Shinde that such an incident will not recur.

Women members in both Houses were in the forefront in expressing shock and anguish over the incident, voicing concern over the safety of the fair sex in Delhi. Cinestar- turned-MP Jaya Bachchan even broke down while speaking on the issue in the Upper House.

In the Lok Sabha, Speaker Meira Kumar led the House in expressing outrage over the "spine-chilling" incident, saying it was shameful for the entire society.

She asked the government to take strong steps immediately in the matter as an impromptu debate took place in both Houses over Sunday night's incident in which the 23-year-old para-medic was raped and brutally assaulted.

Leader of the Opposition Sushma Swaraj made a strong pitch for capital punishment for such crimes, a demand which did not find favour with Girija Vyas (Cong), who said such a penalty would lead to killing of women after rape.

Swaraj, however, got support from her party colleague Najma Heptulla as well as UPA ally DMK member Vasanthy Stanley and V Maitreyan (AIADMK) in the Rajya Sabha, who said "these culprits should be hanged till death".

Maitreyan also urged the government to amend the law and introduce death penalty for rapists.

"Death penalty is the only punishment that is to be given. We can enact a law. This will serve as a deterrent," Heptulla said.

Eminent jurist and Rajya Sabha member Ram Jethmalani demanded removal of the Delhi Police chief over the failure to check the "heinous" crime.

Women members in both Houses said that the "barbaric" incidents of rape turned a woman into a living corpse and therefore there was need to give death penalty to perpetrators.

BSP chief Mayawati said law should be amended to ensure stronger action in such cases. "Nothing will happen by only arresting the perpetrators. Give them stringent punishment," she said.

Jethmalani said, "Former Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri set an example of democratic responsibilities that somebody's head must roll.

"I am not asking for the home minister's head...But the head of the Delhi Police chief must roll and you must ensure that this happens if he does not do it (resign) voluntarily."

Jaya Bachchan (SP), who stood in protest for quite some time over not being allowed to speak on the issue of women's safety in Delhi, said an act of sexual assault should be treated on par with murder and section 307 of IPC should be amended to include rape in it.

"I am terribly disturbed...I am very shocked," Bachchan said in a choked voice.

Derek'O' Brien (TMC) said as he spoke on the issue in the House, he was "nervous and scared as a father of a 17-year-old daughter" as Delhi is becoming "rape capital".

"It is not a woman's issue. It is a male issue. Men have stopped behaving like human beings and started behaving like animals...worse than animals," he said.

Attacking Shinde over the incident, Maya Singh ( BJP) said the gangrape raises a question as to whether it is the rule of the law or rule of goondas in Delhi.

"The incident continued for 90 minutes not in a village or some jungle but in south Delhi... who will take responsibility -- you or the Delhi chief minister. You look after Delhi police," she said.

Singh said the House should pass a proposal that no lawyer will plead on behalf of the perpetrators of such crime.

M Venkaiah Naidu (BJP) said a strong political will was needed to check these "very shameful" incidents. "Condolence for the dead and compensation to survivors cannot be a policy," he said.

"Every time an incident like this takes place, Government appears to be helpless. Is there a government, is there a system? The home minister should take moral responsibility," Naidu, who is also the chairman of Home Ministry's Standing Committee, said.

Prashant Chatterjee (CPI-M) said the unimaginable barbaric incident happened even as the vehicle in which all that took place passed three PCR vans. A television footage showed there was no police at any of these points, he said.

Renuka Chowdhary (Cong) said this is not the time to nitpick and say who is to blame collectively. "It is our collective social failure," he said.

Swaraj earlier said it was lamentable that such incidents continued to happen in the capital city, which is the seat of power of the Centre and where a woman is Chief Minister.

Vyas, a former Chairman of the National Commission for Women, said Parliament should expeditiously enact law on sexual offence.

She regretted that in recent times, there has not been much security in the buses especially during evening. Besides, there has been inadequate police patrolling in sensitive areas.

Vyas made a strong pitch for fast track courts to deal with such crimes.

Meanwhile, home minister Sushil Kumar Shinde said in Parliament that a special committee, headed by home secretary, has been constituted to look into the safety of women in Delhi. (Input from PTI)

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Experts: No link between Asperger's, violence


NEW YORK (AP) — While an official has said that the 20-year-old gunman in the Connecticut school shooting had Asperger's syndrome, experts say there is no connection between the disorder and violence.


Asperger's is a mild form of autism often characterized by social awkwardness.


"There really is no clear association between Asperger's and violent behavior," said psychologist Elizabeth Laugeson, an assistant clinical professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.


Little is known about Adam Lanza, identified by police as the shooter in the Friday massacre at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school. He fatally shot his mother before going to the school and killing 20 young children, six adults and himself, authorities said.


A law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to discuss the unfolding investigation, said Lanza had been diagnosed with Asperger's.


High school classmates and others have described him as bright but painfully shy, anxious and a loner. Those kinds of symptoms are consistent with Asperger's, said psychologist Eric Butter of Nationwide Children's Hospital in Columbus, Ohio, who treats autism, including Asperger's, but has no knowledge of Lanza's case.


Research suggests people with autism do have a higher rate of aggressive behavior — outbursts, shoving or pushing or angry shouting — than the general population, he said.


"But we are not talking about the kind of planned and intentional type of violence we have seen at Newtown," he said in an email.


"These types of tragedies have occurred at the hands of individuals with many different types of personalities and psychological profiles," he added.


Autism is a developmental disorder that can range from mild to severe. Asperger's generally is thought of as a mild form. Both autism and Asperger's can be characterized by poor social skills, repetitive behavior or interests and problems communicating. Unlike classic autism, Asperger's does not typically involve delays in mental development or speech.


Experts say those with autism and related disorders are sometimes diagnosed with other mental health problems, such as depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder or obsessive-compulsive disorder.


"I think it's far more likely that what happened may have more to do with some other kind of mental health condition like depression or anxiety rather than Asperger's," Laugeson said.


She said those with Asperger's tend to focus on rules and be very law-abiding.


"There's something more to this," she said. "We just don't know what that is yet."


After much debate, the term Asperger's is being dropped from the diagnostic manual used by the nation's psychiatrists. In changes approved earlier this month, Asperger's will be incorporated under the umbrella term "autism spectrum disorder" for all the ranges of autism.


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AP Writer Matt Apuzzo contributed to this report.


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Online:


Asperger's information: http://1.usa.gov/3tGSp5


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Siblings of Sandy Hook Victims Face Survivor's Guilt













Six-year-old Arielle Pozner was in a classroom at Sandy Hook school when Adam Lanza burst into the school with his rifle and handguns. Her twin brother, Noah, was in a classroom down the hall.


Noah Pozner was killed by Lanza, along with 19 other children at the school, and six adults. Arielle and other students' siblings survived.


"That's going to be incredibly difficult to cope with," said Dr. Jamie Howard, a clinical psychologist at the Child Mind Institute in New York. "It is not something we expect her to cope with today and be OK with tomorrow."


READ: Two Adult Survivors of Connecticut School Shooting Will be Key Witnesses


As the community of Newtown, Conn., begins to bury the young victims of the Sandy Hook elementary school shooting today, the equally young siblings of those killed will only be starting to comprehend what happened to their brothers and sisters.


"Children this young do experience depression in a diagnosable way, they do experience post-traumatic stress disorder. Just because they're young, they don't escape the potential for real suffering," said Rahil Briggs, a child psychologist and professor at Montefiore Medical Center in New York City.






Spencer Platt/Getty Images













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Arielle and other survivor siblings could develop anxiety or other emotional reactions to their siblings' death, including "associative logic," where they associate their own actions with their sibling's death, Howard said.


"This is when two things happen, and (children) infer that one thing caused the other. (Arielle) may be at risk for that type of magical thinking, and that could be where survivor's guilt comes in. She may think she did something, but of course she didn't," Howard said.


CLICK HERE for photos from the shooting scene.


Children in families where one sibling has died sometimes struggle as their parents are overwhelmed by grief, Howard noted. When that death is traumatic, adults and children sometimes choose not to think about the person or the event to avoid pain.


Interested in How to Help Newtown Families?


"With traumatic grief, it's really important to talk about and think about the children that died, not to avoid talking and thinking about them because that interferes with grieving process, want their lives to be celebrated," Howard said.


Children may also have difficulty understanding why their deceased brother or sister is receiving so much, or so little, attention, according Briggs.


"I think one of the most challenging questions we can be faced with as parents is how to 'appropriately' remember a child that is gone. So much that can go wrong with that," Briggs said. "You have the child who is fortunate enough to escape, who thinks 'Why me? Why did my brother go?' But if you don't remember the sibling enough the child says 'it seems like we've forgotten my brother.'"


"They may even find themselves feeling jealous of all the attention the sibling seems to be receiving," Briggs said.


Parents and other adults in the family's support system need to be on alert, watching the child's behavior, she said. Children could show signs of withdrawing, or seeming spacy or in a daze. They could also seem jumpy or have difficulty concentrating in the wake of a traumatic event.


"For kids experiencing symptoms, and interfering with ability to go to school, they may be suffering from acute stress disorder, and there are good treatments," Howard said.






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Syrian vice president says neither side can win war


BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa said that neither the forces of President Bashar al-Assad nor rebels seeking to overthrow him can win the war which is now being fought on the outskirts of Assad's powerbase in Damascus.


Sharaa, a Sunni Muslim in a power structure dominated by Assad's Alawite minority, has rarely been seen since the Syrian revolt erupted in March 2011 and is not part of the president's inner circle directing the fight against Sunni rebels.


But he is the most prominent figure to say in public that Assad will not win. He was speaking to the pro-Assad al-Akhbar paper in an interview from Damascus which is now hemmed in by rebel fighters to the south.


Assad's forces have used jets and artillery to try to dislodge the fighters from around Damascus but the violence has crept into the heart of the capital and rebels announced on Sunday a new offensive in the central province of Hama.


Sharaa said the situation in Syria, where more than 40,000 people have been killed, was deteriorating and a "historic settlement" was needed to end the conflict, involving regional powers and the U.N. Security Council and the formation of a national unity government "with broad powers".


"With every passing day the political and military solutions are becoming more distant. We should be in a position defending the existence of Syria. We are not in a battle for an individual or a regime," Sharaa was quoted as saying.


"The opposition cannot decisively settle the battle and what the security forces and army units are doing will not achieve a decisive settlement," he told the paper, adding that the insurgents fighting to topple Syria's leadership could plunge it into "anarchy and an unending spiral of violence".


Sources close to the Syrian government say Sharaa had pushed for dialogue with the opposition and objected to the military response to an uprising that began peacefully.


In Damascus, residents said on Monday the army had told people to evacuate the Palestinian district of Yarmouk, suggesting an all-out military offensive on the southern district was imminent.


The centre of the city, largely insulated from the violence for 21 months, is now full of army and vigilante checkpoints and shakes to the sound of regular shelling, residents say.


Queues for bread form at bakeries hours before dawn, as people seek out dwindling supplies, power cuts are increasing and fears are growing that Damascus could descend into chaos.


In a veiled criticism of the crackdown, Sharaa said there was a difference between the state's duty to provide security to its citizens, and "pursuing a security solution to the crisis."


He said even Assad could not be certain where events in Syria were leading, but that anyone who met him would hear that "this is a long struggle...and he does not hide his desire to settle matters militarily to reach a final solution."


CHANGE INEVITABLE


"We realize today that change is inevitable," Sharaa said, but "none of the peaceful or armed opposition groups with their known foreign links can call themselves the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people".


"Likewise the current leadership...cannot achieve change alone after two years of crisis without new partners who contribute to preserving (Syria's) national fabric, territorial unity and regional sovereignty".


Rebels have now brought the war to the capital, without yet delivering a fatal blow to the government. But nor has Assad found the military muscle to oust his opponents from the city.


In Paris, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France, one of the powers most insistent that Assad has lost his legitimacy, said: "I think the end is nearing for Bashar al-Assad."


On the ground, rebels said they were launching an operation to seize the central province of Hama to try to link northern rural areas of Syria under their control to the center.


Qassem Saadeddine, a member of the newly established rebel military command, said fighters had been ordered to surround and attack checkpoints across the province. He said forces loyal to Assad had been given 48 hours to surrender or be killed.


"When we liberate the countryside of Hama province ... then we will have the area between Aleppo and Hama liberated and open for us," he told Reuters.


The city of Hama in the province of the same name has a special resonance for anti-Assad activists. In 1982 Hafez al-Assad, father of the current ruler, crushed an uprising in the city, killing up to 30,000 civilians.


In Damascus, activists said fighter jets bombed the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp on Sunday, killing at least 25 people sheltering in a mosque.


The attack was part of a month-old campaign by Assad's forces to eject rebels from positions they are establishing around the capital's perimeter. Yarmouk, to the south, falls within an arc of territory running from the east of Damascus to the southwest from where rebels hope to storm the government's main redoubt.


MOSQUE HIT


Opposition activists said the deaths in Yarmouk, to which refugees have fled from fighting in nearby suburbs, resulted from a rocket fired from a warplane hitting the mosque.


Footage showed bodies and body parts scattered on the stairs of what appeared to be the mosque.


The latest battlefield accounts could not be independently verified due to tight restrictions on media access to Syria.


Syria is home to more than 500,000 Palestinian refugees, most living in Yarmouk, and both Assad's government and the rebels have enlisted and armed Palestinians as the uprising, which began as a peaceful street movement 21 months ago, has mushroomed into a civil war.


After Sunday's air raid, clashes flared between Palestinians from the pro-Assad Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) and rebels including other Palestinian fighters and some PFLP-GC fighters were killed.


In the latest of a string of military installations to fall to the rebels, the army's infantry college north of Aleppo was captured on Saturday after five days of fighting, a rebel commander with the powerful Islamist Tawheed Brigade said.


(Additional reporting by Dominic Evans; Editing by Samia Nakhoul and Anna Willard)



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India cuts growth rate forecast






NEW DELHI: India on Monday cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to just below six percent, putting Asia's third-largest economy on track for its worst annual performance in a decade.

The finance ministry said "supportive" moves from the central bank would be needed even for the economy to expand at the revised level of 5.7-to-5.9 percent, down from 7.85 percent estimated at the start of the year.

The forecast came a day before the bank was expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold as it waits for stubborn inflation to ease, despite mounting pressure for a cut to boost the sluggish economy.

"It should be possible for the economy to improve the overall growth rate of GDP (for the year) to around 5.7 percent to 5.9 percent" from 5.4 percent in the first half, said the Mid-Year Economic Analysis tabled in parliament.

The full-year rate would be far below the near double-digit pace India set before the onset of the global financial crisis.

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has been urging the central bank to reduce high interest rates to bolster the economy.

But the bank has kept rates steady since April -- when it cut them for the first time in three years -- unlike other developing countries which have lowered borrowing costs to shield their economies from the eurozone crisis.

India's bank has insisted inflation must recede and the government needs to curb its ballooning fiscal deficit -- the widest of all emerging market economies -- before more rate cuts.

Growth in 2011-12 fell to a nine-year low of 6.5 percent hit by high interest rates, struggling overseas economies and sluggish investment caused by concerns about policymaking and corruption.

India's economy has not expanded by less than 6.5 percent since the 2002-2003 financial year.

Economists had already cut their year growth forecasts to mid-five percent or lower.

- AFP/ir



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Exit polls predict massive win for BJP in Gujarat

AHMEDABAD: Voting has ended for the Gujarat assembly elections 2012 on Sunday with millions casting their ballot at 23, 318 polling booths at Kutch, north and central Gujarat in the second and final phase of the elections.

Elections in the second phase were held in 95 of the 182 constituencies.

According to the initial exit poll results coming from C-Voter and Chanakya, incumbant chief minister Narendra Modi is all set to retain power with a massive victory.

C-Voter predicts BJP could win 124 out of 182 seats while Chanakya predicts 140 seats for the BJP. Also, BJP is expected to get 46 per cent of the total vote share.

According to C-Voter Congress can win 54 seats with 37 per cent of vote share in Gujarat.

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